The City

Tracking the UK’s economic recovery through the lens of six indicators

The UK economy suffered one of its worst economic declines on record in the second quarter, as the government announced a countrywide lockdown on 23rd March 2020 that shuttered businesses and schools across the country. A few days before lockdown began, the Bank of England convened an emergency meeting where the committee unanimously voted to

Jerome Powell in virtual meeting

What can we takeaway from the Jackson Hole symposium?

This week the Federal Reserve announced its plans for an important shift in its strategy to manage inflation. The central bank will not increase interest rates in response to low unemployment levels and will not worry as much about low interest rates triggering inflation. This was insinuated by a statement Fed chair Jerome Powell made,

St Paul's Cathedral

UK employment remains weak as figures show record decline in total hours worked

Total number of weekly hours worked in Q2 2020 was 849.3m, down a record 203.3m on the previous year and down 191.3m hours on Q1 2020. The employment rate is 76.4%, 0.3% higher than last year, but 0.2% lower than Q1 2020. The unemployment rate is 3.9%, little changed on previous quarter and prior year

Capitol Hill

Equity markets creep higher as growing US-China tensions tempers gains

Stocks on both sides of the Atlantic were up with stock bourses in the US, UK, France, Germany, Spain and Italy all in the green. This was despite news that China had sanctioned 11 Americans in retaliation to similar moves by the US on Hong Kong and Chinese officials. Global investors, however, continue to have

US NYC street

1.763m in July non-farm payrolls beats estimates although recovery slows

The US Bureau of Labour statistics announced non-farm payrolls growth of 1.8m in July, beating consensus expectations for 1.6m, although it suggests a slowing labour market recovery following June’s gain of 4.8m. Markets took the news with mild positivity with S&P 500 e-mini futures moving higher by about 20bps, while yields on US 10 year

Nevada remains the worst affected as US initial jobless claims declines to 1.186m

The latest jobless claims figures from the Department of Labour shows initial claims filed during the week ending 1st August declined to 1,186,000, beating consensus expectations for 1,432,000. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures creeped higher on the news, erasing their pre-market losses, while the yield on the US 10-year treasury ticked higher by about 1bp.

New York

US private sector employment rises by just 167k

According to the latest data from ADP, one of the US’ largest private payrolls processors, private sector employment increased by a meagre 167,000 in July. Consensus expectations were for a much larger 1.5m in jobs growth, so today’s data will undoubtedly cause concern to investors and policymakers that the labour market recovery has stalled. The

American lumberjack

ISM’s US Manufacturing PMI rises for third straight month

The Institute for Supply Management’s survey of manufacturing companies for July revealed economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew for a second straight month. The headline index rose by 1.6 to 54.2, driven by a surge in new orders and production. In June, the headline index registered 52.6, while in May it registered 43.1. July’s

New York diner

US Consumer Sentiment declines as Covid-19 cases surge

The University of Michigan’s monthly survey of consumer confidence revealed lower confidence among consumers in July, as the headline sentiment index declined from 78.1 in June to 72.5 in July. The last four months has seen stubbornly low levels in the headline sentiment index for which the average has been 73.7 – 25% lower than

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