Jerome Powell in virtual meeting

What can we takeaway from the Jackson Hole symposium?

This week the Federal Reserve announced its plans for an important shift in its strategy to manage inflation. The central bank will not increase interest rates in response to low unemployment levels and will not worry as much about low interest rates triggering inflation. This was insinuated by a statement Fed chair Jerome Powell made,

US NYC street

1.763m in July non-farm payrolls beats estimates although recovery slows

The US Bureau of Labour statistics announced non-farm payrolls growth of 1.8m in July, beating consensus expectations for 1.6m, although it suggests a slowing labour market recovery following June’s gain of 4.8m. Markets took the news with mild positivity with S&P 500 e-mini futures moving higher by about 20bps, while yields on US 10 year

Nevada remains the worst affected as US initial jobless claims declines to 1.186m

The latest jobless claims figures from the Department of Labour shows initial claims filed during the week ending 1st August declined to 1,186,000, beating consensus expectations for 1,432,000. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures creeped higher on the news, erasing their pre-market losses, while the yield on the US 10-year treasury ticked higher by about 1bp.

New York

US private sector employment rises by just 167k

According to the latest data from ADP, one of the US’ largest private payrolls processors, private sector employment increased by a meagre 167,000 in July. Consensus expectations were for a much larger 1.5m in jobs growth, so today’s data will undoubtedly cause concern to investors and policymakers that the labour market recovery has stalled. The

American lumberjack

ISM’s US Manufacturing PMI rises for third straight month

The Institute for Supply Management’s survey of manufacturing companies for July revealed economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew for a second straight month. The headline index rose by 1.6 to 54.2, driven by a surge in new orders and production. In June, the headline index registered 52.6, while in May it registered 43.1. July’s

New York diner

US Consumer Sentiment declines as Covid-19 cases surge

The University of Michigan’s monthly survey of consumer confidence revealed lower confidence among consumers in July, as the headline sentiment index declined from 78.1 in June to 72.5 in July. The last four months has seen stubbornly low levels in the headline sentiment index for which the average has been 73.7 – 25% lower than

Las Vegas sign

US initial jobless claims holds firm at 1.4m as continuing claims reverses higher to 17m

Although initial US jobless claims were better than the median forecast of 1.45m, this week’s print of 1,434,000 represented an increase of 12,000 on last week’s revised figure. The message is clear. The US economic recovery is sputtering and stalling and needs an injection of stimulus soon. The top three largest rises in initial claims

Car factory

US transportation sector drives new orders for durable goods 7.3% higher

New orders for durable goods rose 7.3% to $206.9bn in June, driven by a surge in new orders for transportation equipment which increased 20% to $55.3bn. Excluding transportation, however, revealed an increase of only 3.3%, which was lower than May’s figure of 3.6%. New orders for capital goods disappointed, declining by 16.4% to $52.2bn, despite

Skyscrapers in Philadelphia

Labour market recovery progresses as continuing jobless claims collapses by over 1m

Economists and analysts had been expecting this week’s initial jobless claims figure to remain the same as last week’s 1.3m, however, today’s jump to 1,416,000 missed by a wide margin. The initial claims data adds to pressure on legislators to pass a new stimulus package ahead of the summer recess, so as to ensure the

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