What can we takeaway from the Jackson Hole symposium?
On August 30, 2020 by Jad DaoThis week the Federal Reserve announced its plans for an important shift in its strategy to manage inflation. The central bank will not increase interest rates in response to low unemployment levels and will not worry as much about low interest rates triggering inflation. This was insinuated by a statement Fed chair Jerome Powell made,
Equity markets creep higher as growing US-China tensions tempers gains
On August 10, 2020 by Thomas BelaynehStocks on both sides of the Atlantic were up with stock bourses in the US, UK, France, Germany, Spain and Italy all in the green. This was despite news that China had sanctioned 11 Americans in retaliation to similar moves by the US on Hong Kong and Chinese officials. Global investors, however, continue to have
1.763m in July non-farm payrolls beats estimates although recovery slows
On August 7, 2020 by Thomas BelaynehThe US Bureau of Labour statistics announced non-farm payrolls growth of 1.8m in July, beating consensus expectations for 1.6m, although it suggests a slowing labour market recovery following June’s gain of 4.8m. Markets took the news with mild positivity with S&P 500 e-mini futures moving higher by about 20bps, while yields on US 10 year
Nevada remains the worst affected as US initial jobless claims declines to 1.186m
On August 6, 2020 by Thomas BelaynehThe latest jobless claims figures from the Department of Labour shows initial claims filed during the week ending 1st August declined to 1,186,000, beating consensus expectations for 1,432,000. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures creeped higher on the news, erasing their pre-market losses, while the yield on the US 10-year treasury ticked higher by about 1bp.
US private sector employment rises by just 167k
On August 5, 2020 by Thomas BelaynehAccording to the latest data from ADP, one of the US’ largest private payrolls processors, private sector employment increased by a meagre 167,000 in July. Consensus expectations were for a much larger 1.5m in jobs growth, so today’s data will undoubtedly cause concern to investors and policymakers that the labour market recovery has stalled. The
ISM’s US Manufacturing PMI rises for third straight month
On August 3, 2020 by Thomas BelaynehThe Institute for Supply Management’s survey of manufacturing companies for July revealed economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew for a second straight month. The headline index rose by 1.6 to 54.2, driven by a surge in new orders and production. In June, the headline index registered 52.6, while in May it registered 43.1. July’s
US Consumer Sentiment declines as Covid-19 cases surge
On July 31, 2020 by Thomas BelaynehThe University of Michigan’s monthly survey of consumer confidence revealed lower confidence among consumers in July, as the headline sentiment index declined from 78.1 in June to 72.5 in July. The last four months has seen stubbornly low levels in the headline sentiment index for which the average has been 73.7 – 25% lower than
US initial jobless claims holds firm at 1.4m as continuing claims reverses higher to 17m
On July 30, 2020 by Thomas BelaynehAlthough initial US jobless claims were better than the median forecast of 1.45m, this week’s print of 1,434,000 represented an increase of 12,000 on last week’s revised figure. The message is clear. The US economic recovery is sputtering and stalling and needs an injection of stimulus soon. The top three largest rises in initial claims
US transportation sector drives new orders for durable goods 7.3% higher
On July 28, 2020 by Thomas BelaynehNew orders for durable goods rose 7.3% to $206.9bn in June, driven by a surge in new orders for transportation equipment which increased 20% to $55.3bn. Excluding transportation, however, revealed an increase of only 3.3%, which was lower than May’s figure of 3.6%. New orders for capital goods disappointed, declining by 16.4% to $52.2bn, despite